The Investment Register calculates a fall in FDI flows received of 68 percent for the January-September period in comparison with the same period of 2008, which amounts to 10,811 million Euros. Despite the negative climate in 2009, the flows received to September are at the same level as those for 2006 and 2007.

Moreover, a possible turning point has been noted in Spain in the 1st quarter of 2009, after which FDI flows have registered a positive inter-quarterly increase thereby breaking the negative trend that began in the 1st quarter of 2008.

Internationally, the OECD has estimated a 59% fall in worldwide FDI flows for 2009 taken as a whole in comparison with 2008, worth around 600,000 million US dollars. This would amount to the largest year-on-year fall in recent history.

The main reason for the fall is a major reduction in merger and takeover operations between companies in OECD countries, which are expected to fall by 60 percent to 454,000 million US dollars, in comparison with a billion US dollars in 2008. This combines with negative forecasts for emerging economies, in which the flows of FDI received for mergers and takeovers are forecast to fall by 40 percent.

Despite some positive signs, it is still very early to predict a recovery in foreign direct investment.

According to the OECD, there will be a major fall in FDI flows in 2009, although the economic recovery of the biggest world economies forecast for 2010, the progressive normalization of the capital markets, and as a result, the possible improvement of expectations for business, should all provide new impetus for foreign direct investment flows, directly linked to these three variables.


 
                                                                                   Cecilia Helland